Sun, Dec 15, 2019·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Los Angeles Kings 4, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 111 | 218 | 13 | 432 |
| DET | 07 | 07 | 210 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:15LAKJeff CarterAssists: Kyle Clifford · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P2 0:40LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Alex Iafallo, Matt Roy · Deflected, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 11:14LAKAnze KopitarGWGAssists: Alex Iafallo, Dustin Brown · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–0
- P3 6:40LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Nikolai Prokhorkin, Michael Amadio · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–0
- P3 9:51DETFilip ZadinaAssists: Madison Bowey, Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–1
- P3 17:37DETMadison BoweyAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Filip Hronek · Slap, 0.04 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:44LAKAustin Wagner: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 9:35DETAndreas Athanasiou: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:13LAKDrew Doughty: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:38LAKKurtis MacDermid: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:13DETAlex Biega: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:49DETMadison Bowey: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Lewis – Clifford5:02
xG 0.77–0.04 (95%)attempts 10–2goals 1–1
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo10:22
xG 0.44–0.21 (67%)attempts 8–9goals 2–1
- Toffoli – Prokhorkin – Amadio8:15
xG 0.43–0.36 (54%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Kempe – Wagner – Lizotte6:05
xG 0.16–0.12 (57%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Roy14:17
xG 1.13–0.32 (78%)attempts 18–10goals 3–2
- Doughty – Ryan15:41
xG 0.54–0.54 (50%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Larkin – Fabbri10:37
xG 0.24–0.09 (72%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Filppula – Mantha – Zadina11:10
xG 0.41–0.69 (38%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Erne7:04
xG 0.10–0.38 (21%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Helm – Glendening – Athanasiou6:26
xG 0.06–0.76 (7%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBowey – Hronek8:22
xG 0.24–0.12 (67%)attempts 9–4goals 2–0
- Ericsson – Biega4:09
xG 0.03–0.06 (36%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Biega – Bowey6:43
xG 0.18–0.28 (39%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).