Sun, Dec 15, 2019·United Center, Chicago
Minnesota Wild 3, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 19 | 211 | 06 | 326 |
| CHI | 210 | 19 | 28 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:42CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Alex Nylander · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 11:33CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Jonathan Toews, Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 12:37MINEric StaalPPAssists: Ryan Suter, Jason Zucker · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 1:59MINKevin FialaAssists: Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–2
- P2 8:13CHIDavid KampfAssists: Connor Murphy, Erik Gustafsson · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 14:20MINKevin FialaAssists: Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 13:43CHIBrandon SaadGWGAssists: Connor Murphy, Jonathan Toews · Deflected, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 18:57CHIPatrick KaneENAssists: Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.56 xG3–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:32MINJordan Greenway: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 11:44CHIKirby Dach: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:45MINJordan Greenway: Interference2 min
- P2 0:45CHIJonathan Toews: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:29MINEric Staal: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kunin won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestParise – Fiala – Donato11:57
xG 0.49–0.19 (72%)attempts 16–7goals 1–1
- Hartman – Greenway – Kunin12:40
xG 0.55–0.40 (58%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Staal – Zuccarello – Zucker11:19
xG 0.19–0.38 (33%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Foligno – Rask – Mayhew9:21
xG 0.21–0.63 (25%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Soucy18:48
xG 0.68–0.54 (56%)attempts 21–12goals 0–0
- Suter – Menell9:56
xG 0.06–0.02 (74%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Hunt – Menell7:41
xG 0.04–0.02 (72%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestCarpenter – DeBrincat – Dach10:12
xG 0.46–0.20 (70%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Smith – Highmore – Kampf10:30
xG 0.13–0.07 (65%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Kane – Strome – Nylander13:30
xG 0.50–0.55 (48%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
- Toews – Saad – Kubalik12:24
xG 0.33–0.56 (37%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Gustafsson19:09
xG 0.78–0.15 (84%)attempts 15–13goals 2–0
- Maatta – Boqvist12:06
xG 0.76–0.77 (50%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Murphy – Maatta3:36
xG 0.03–0.08 (30%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).