Sun, Dec 15, 2019·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Vancouver Canucks 3, Vegas Golden Knights 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 19 | 05 | 215 | 329 |
| VGK | 211 | 219 | 216 | 646 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:22VGKNick HoldenAssists: Paul Stastny · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 4:03VANElias PetterssonAssists: Chris Tanev, Brock Boeser · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 9:51VGKValentin ZykovAssists: Max Pacioretty, Shea Theodore · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 4:46VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Reilly Smith, William Karlsson · Snap, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 9:16VGKMark StonePPGWGAssists: Max Pacioretty, Shea Theodore · Snap, 0.12 xG1–4
- P3 5:02VANBrock BoeserAssists: Quinn Hughes, Antoine Roussel · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 10:49VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Mark Stone, Deryk Engelland · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–5
- P3 17:24VANJake VirtanenPPAssists: Tyler Myers, Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–5
- P3 19:18VGKMax PaciorettyPPAssists: Shea Theodore, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:04VANJordie Benn: Holding2 min
- P1 9:42VANJordie Benn: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:42VGKReilly Smith: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:55VGKRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:55VANAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:19VANJosh Leivo: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 15:45VGKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 18:20VANQuinn Hughes: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 19:52VGKDeryk Engelland: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:52VANJay Beagle: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Virtanen – Pettersson3:43
xG 0.58–0.01 (98%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Roussel – Horvat – Boeser4:02
xG 0.35–0.27 (56%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Motte – Horvat – Boeser2:06
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Miller – Boeser – Pettersson6:01
xG 0.34–0.41 (45%)attempts 7–3goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Myers – Hughes13:43
xG 0.70–0.70 (50%)attempts 12–11goals 1–2
- Myers – Fantenberg3:24
xG 0.11–0.17 (39%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Tanev – Hughes3:34
xG 0.18–0.29 (38%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Stone – Stephenson11:13
xG 1.00–0.13 (88%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Stastny – Zykov – Tuch8:38
xG 1.09–0.36 (75%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Nosek10:06
xG 0.75–0.37 (67%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault10:54
xG 0.69–0.54 (56%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Holden15:41
xG 1.77–0.38 (82%)attempts 29–10goals 2–0
- McNabb – Schmidt12:49
xG 1.06–0.60 (64%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
- Merrill – Theodore14:21
xG 0.64–0.55 (54%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).