Mon, Dec 16, 2019·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Ottawa Senators 1, Florida Panthers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 011 | 19 | 010 | 130 |
| FLA | 112 | 513 | 06 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:42FLANoel AcciariAssists: Keith Yandle, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 1:18FLANoel AcciariGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 2:05OTTArtem AnisimovAssists: Tyler Ennis, Logan Brown · Slap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 5:41FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 10:33FLANoel AcciariAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Aaron Ekblad · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–4
- P2 15:06FLAMike MathesonAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.05 xG1–5
- P2 19:28FLADominic ToninatoAssists: Aaron Ekblad · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:14OTTTyler Ennis: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:46OTTTyler Ennis: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:11OTTThomas Chabot: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 16:35OTTVladislav Namestnikov: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 16:35FLAAaron Ekblad: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:14FLANoel Acciari: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:14OTTMark Borowiecki: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:43FLAVincent Trocheck: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:48OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:48FLAAnton Stralman: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:37OTTErik Brannstrom: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Brown – Tkachuk11:29
xG 0.80–0.63 (56%)attempts 16–11goals 0–2
- Anisimov – Ennis – Paul10:06
xG 0.17–0.13 (56%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- White – Beaudin – Brown8:57
xG 0.06–0.18 (26%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Tierney – Duclair7:49
xG 0.42–0.56 (43%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoloubef – Borowiecki9:03
xG 0.55–0.20 (73%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Chabot – Brannstrom4:02
xG 0.42–0.14 (76%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Chabot12:31
xG 0.47–0.39 (55%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Huberdeau – Acciari12:02
xG 0.80–0.28 (74%)attempts 12–10goals 4–0
- Connolly – Barkov – Vatrano13:03
xG 0.66–0.69 (49%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Hoffman – Malgin8:20
xG 0.30–0.47 (39%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Matheson11:06
xG 0.49–0.24 (67%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- Yandle – Brown9:52
xG 0.57–0.39 (59%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Weegar – Ekblad13:05
xG 0.52–0.52 (50%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).