Mon, Dec 16, 2019·Madison Square Garden, New York
Nashville Predators 5, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 18 | 27 | 29 | 524 |
| NYR | 115 | 013 | 113 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:36NSHRocco GrimaldiAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 11:10NYRChris KreiderAssists: Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 10:16NSHRoman JosiAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Kyle Turris · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 15:23NSHMattias EkholmGWGAssists: Nick Bonino · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–1
- P3 17:18NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 18:11NSHRoman JosiENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.42 xG4–2
- P3 19:55NSHRyan EllisENAssists: Austin Watson · Wrist, 0.44 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 16:38NSHKyle Turris: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:19NYRBrendan Lemieux: Interference2 min
- P2 8:01NSHRyan Ellis: Elbowing2 min
- P2 11:19NSHDante Fabbro: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:19NYRJesper Fast: Holding2 min
- P2 13:11NSHMattias Ekholm: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:27NYRBrendan Lemieux: Misconduct10 min
- P3 5:50NYRPavel Buchnevich: Holding2 min
- P3 12:38NSHMatt Duchene: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestWatson – Blackwell – Trenin5:58
xG 0.58–0.15 (80%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Johansen – Forsberg8:34
xG 0.40–0.43 (48%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Bonino – Smith – Grimaldi6:58
xG 0.21–0.36 (37%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Turris – Duchene – Sissons8:58
xG 0.17–0.37 (31%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis15:52
xG 0.98–0.35 (74%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Fabbro13:53
xG 0.26–0.85 (23%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Hamhuis – Weber11:00
xG 0.15–0.91 (14%)attempts 4–18goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Fast – Zibanejad7:28
xG 0.49–0.29 (62%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Strome – Lemieux – Panarin5:28
xG 0.31–0.20 (62%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Panarin2:05
xG 0.07–0.00 (94%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Strome – Buchnevich – Panarin3:36
xG 0.20–0.17 (54%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Trouba14:30
xG 1.03–0.63 (62%)attempts 19–11goals 1–1
- Fox – Lindgren9:31
xG 0.41–0.43 (49%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Staal – DeAngelo8:33
xG 0.10–0.12 (45%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).