Mon, Dec 16, 2019·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Colorado Avalanche 2, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 06 | 213 | 09 | 228 |
| STL | 115 | 29 | 211 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:51STLDavid PerronAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Oskar Sundqvist · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 0:55COLNazem KadriAssists: Ryan Graves · Snap, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 9:35COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Samuel Girard, Nathan MacKinnon · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 18:47STLDavid PerronPPAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 19:23STLVince DunnGWGAssists: Tyler Bozak, Justin Faulk · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 11:24STLJordan KyrouUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 16:05STLDavid PerronENAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.62 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:58COLMark Barberio: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:31COLCalle Rosen: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:31STLMackenzie MacEachern: Embellishment2 min
- P2 8:24STLAlexander Steen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:21STLRobert Bortuzzo: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:05COLNazem Kadri: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen2:21
xG 0.34–0.08 (81%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Nieto – Compher – Jost6:07
xG 0.14–0.15 (49%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kadri – Donskoi – Landeskog7:23
xG 0.27–0.31 (46%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
- Calvert – Nichushkin – Bellemare8:35
xG 0.58–0.72 (45%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Barberio3:10
xG 0.51–0.08 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Cole – Zadorov2:25
xG 0.26–0.05 (82%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Cole – Girard2:37
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – O'Reilly – Sundqvist8:55
xG 1.09–0.72 (60%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Schenn – Schwartz – Sanford3:58
xG 0.46–0.15 (76%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Steen – Bozak – Thomas9:54
xG 0.37–0.10 (79%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- MacEachern – de la Rose – Kyrou3:53
xG 0.16–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Faulk14:56
xG 1.06–0.47 (69%)attempts 25–9goals 0–1
- Bortuzzo – Dunn13:49
xG 0.71–0.70 (51%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Parayko16:55
xG 0.56–0.87 (39%)attempts 9–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).