Mon, Dec 16, 2019·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Edmonton Oilers 2, Dallas Stars 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 212 | 08 | 08 | 228 |
| DAL | 09 | 08 | 118 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:07EDMZack KassianAssists: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 14:13EDMLeon DraisaitlPPGWGAssists: Alex Chiasson, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P3 17:23DALTyler SeguinAssists: Joe Pavelski, Alexander Radulov · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:10DALAndrew Cogliano: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:54DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:12DALBlake Comeau: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:36EDMJoakim Nygard: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:24DALBlake Comeau: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:58DALJamie Oleksiak: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:09EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:55DALAndrej Sekera: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:11EDMCaleb Jones: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Sheahan – Archibald – Haas8:38
xG 0.39–0.36 (52%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Neal – Gagner – Draisaitl6:19
xG 0.33–0.31 (52%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Kassian – McDavid – Nygard9:52
xG 0.15–0.64 (19%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Chiasson – Nugent-Hopkins – Khaira10:04
xG 0.02–0.87 (2%)attempts 1–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Larsson – Klefbom15:12
xG 0.52–0.51 (51%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Nurse – Bear11:24
xG 0.29–0.56 (34%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Russell – Jones10:15
xG 0.24–1.07 (18%)attempts 6–17goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Janmark – Hintz8:38
xG 0.80–0.06 (93%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin10:09
xG 0.89–0.29 (76%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa7:41
xG 0.50–0.02 (96%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Perry – Dickinson – Gurianov5:23
xG 0.04–0.26 (14%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Heiskanen13:58
xG 1.05–0.58 (64%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell11:57
xG 0.53–0.15 (78%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Sekera – Polak7:25
xG 0.31–0.25 (55%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).