Tue, Dec 17, 2019·NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum, Uniondale
Nashville Predators 8, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 16 | 49 | 39 | 824 |
| NYI | 012 | 311 | 07 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:39NSHCraig SmithAssists: Nick Bonino · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 2:55NYIBrock NelsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 4:43NYIDerick BrassardPPAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 8:11NYICasey CizikasSHAssists: Scott Mayfield · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 8:38NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 10:58NSHCraig SmithAssists: Kyle Turris · Snap, 0.22 xG3–3
- P2 18:24NSHNick BoninoGWGAssists: Mattias Ekholm · Tip-in, 0.18 xG4–3
- P2 19:12NSHRocco GrimaldiAssists: Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.22 xG5–3
- P3 8:59NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Ryan Johansen, Yakov Trenin · Wrist, 0.08 xG6–3
- P3 11:36NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Ryan Ellis, Calle Jarnkrok · Slap, 0.06 xG7–3
- P3 14:08NSHRyan JohansenAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Ryan Ellis · Snap, 0.22 xG8–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 10:27NSHFilip Forsberg: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 17:24NYINick Leddy: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:11NSHAustin Watson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 7:30NYIAnders Lee: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:56NYIMathew Barzal: Holding2 min
- P2 11:56NSHDante Fabbro: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:50NYIScott Mayfield: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 15:34NYIRoss Johnston: Charging2 min
- P3 15:34NYIRoss Johnston: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:05NYIScott Mayfield: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:05NYIScott Mayfield: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:05NSHCraig Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:05NYIScott Mayfield: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:05NSHCraig Smith: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Johansen – Trenin7:02
xG 0.34–0.09 (78%)attempts 5–6goals 2–0
- Turris – Smith – Blackwell7:53
xG 0.57–0.41 (58%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Duchene – Grimaldi – Forsberg9:14
xG 0.52–0.53 (49%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Bonino – Watson – Sissons9:02
xG 0.12–0.32 (28%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis12:29
xG 0.90–0.20 (82%)attempts 16–14goals 2–0
- Hamhuis – Irwin11:04
xG 0.29–0.30 (49%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Irwin – Fabbro2:17
xG 0.02–0.06 (26%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Johnston – Barzal8:59
xG 0.64–0.29 (69%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Brassard – Eberle – Lee8:17
xG 0.32–0.27 (55%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Komarov – Nelson – Beauvillier8:25
xG 0.33–0.31 (52%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Eberle – Lee – Barzal3:29
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Pelech – Pulock14:05
xG 0.48–0.51 (48%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Boychuk – Leddy11:40
xG 0.43–0.50 (46%)attempts 11–8goals 1–2
- Leddy – Toews2:47
xG 0.01–0.25 (2%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).