Tue, Dec 17, 2019·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Anaheim Ducks 1, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 016 | 112 | 013 | 141 |
| PHI | 012 | 212 | 27 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:55PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Travis Konecny, Sean Couturier · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 4:14PHIDavid KaseGWGAssists: Travis Sanheim, Morgan Frost · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 16:33ANARickard RakellPPAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Jakob Silfverberg · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 4:11PHIJakub VoracekSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 19:52PHISean CouturierENAssists: Ivan Provorov, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.57 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:54PHIChris Stewart: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:48ANANicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:48PHIChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:48ANAHampus Lindholm: Interference2 min
- P2 5:40ANAHampus Lindholm: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:56PHIClaude Giroux: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:02PHINicolas Aube-Kubel: Kneeing2 min
- P3 1:30PHIMatt Niskanen: Boarding2 min
- P3 1:30PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:30ANAErik Gudbranson: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:40PHIKevin Hayes: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Shore – Kase6:21
xG 0.96–0.17 (85%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Rakell8:50
xG 0.67–0.09 (88%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Terry – Steel – Comtois5:28
xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Grant – Deslauriers – Rowney3:06
xG 0.03–0.01 (72%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Gudbranson13:05
xG 1.00–0.14 (88%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Manson – Lindholm15:01
xG 1.00–0.27 (79%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Larsson11:34
xG 0.72–0.59 (55%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- van Riemsdyk – Hayes – Aube-Kubel8:31
xG 0.25–0.23 (52%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Voracek – Kase – Frost7:42
xG 0.28–0.27 (51%)attempts 4–8goals 2–0
- Stewart – Andreoff – Vorobyev4:28
xG 0.12–0.19 (39%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny11:34
xG 0.55–1.02 (35%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Braun – Sanheim13:48
xG 0.73–0.94 (44%)attempts 15–13goals 2–0
- Gostisbehere – Hagg13:25
xG 0.47–0.91 (34%)attempts 11–18goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Provorov16:05
xG 0.31–1.00 (24%)attempts 9–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).