Tue, Dec 17, 2019·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 213 | 114 | 212 | 539 |
| DET | 24 | 16 | 011 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:11DETAdam ErneAssists: Frans Nielsen, Brendan Perlini · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 11:02CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Seth Jones · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 12:06CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Boone Jenner · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P1 17:17DETAdam ErneAssists: Luke Glendening, Madison Bowey · Snap, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 1:58DETTyler BertuzziPPAssists: Dylan Larkin, Filip Hronek · Deflected, 0.23 xG2–3
- P2 6:54CBJKevin StenlundPPAssists: Cam Atkinson, Seth Jones · Deflected, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 1:19CBJPierre-Luc DuboisGWGAssists: Alexandre Texier · Snap, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 19:53CBJGustav NyquistENAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand · Wrist, 0.57 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:58CBJMarko Dano: Interference2 min
- P2 1:03CBJNick Foligno: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:29DETAnthony Mantha: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:20DETPatrik Nemeth: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:52CBJBoone Jenner: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Atkinson – Wennberg9:10
xG 0.45–0.03 (94%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Jenner – Bjorkstrand13:04
xG 0.62–0.21 (75%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Foligno – Nash – Atkinson3:30
xG 0.24–0.14 (63%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Dubois – Texier – Robinson9:14
xG 0.26–0.29 (48%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Gavrikov15:20
xG 1.45–0.42 (78%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski15:03
xG 0.92–0.29 (76%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Kukan – Gavrikov3:02
xG 0.15–0.03 (84%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Erne – Perlini6:42
xG 0.30–0.05 (85%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Filppula – Fabbri – Zadina8:14
xG 0.15–0.44 (26%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Helm – Glendening – Athanasiou6:39
xG 0.03–0.34 (9%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Mantha – Larkin13:04
xG 0.10–1.64 (6%)attempts 5–22goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Bowey2:55
xG 0.20–0.03 (88%)attempts 2–1goals 2–0
- Biega – Bowey8:24
xG 0.09–0.13 (41%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Green – Biega3:37
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).