Tue, Dec 17, 2019·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Carolina Hurricanes 6, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 111 | 412 | 15 | 628 |
| WPG | 113 | 19 | 111 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:23CARLucas WallmarkPPAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Ryan Dzingel · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
- P1 19:52WPGJack RoslovicAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Blake Wheeler · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 8:39CARSebastian AhoAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 12:18WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Nathan Beaulieu · Deflected, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 13:10CARAndrei SvechnikovUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG3–2
- P2 16:46CARSebastian AhoGWGAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Dougie Hamilton · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–2
- P2 18:43CARJordan StaalPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.39 xG5–2
- P3 3:16CARJordan StaalAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Warren Foegele · Wrist, 0.12 xG6–2
- P3 12:02WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.07 xG6–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 13:44CARJake Gardiner: Holding2 min
- P1 17:25WPGJosh Morrissey: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 17:52WPGAnthony Bitetto: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 11:09CARSebastian Aho: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Foegele – Svechnikov10:21
xG 0.87–0.52 (62%)attempts 15–5goals 2–0
- Gibbons – Martinook – McGinn7:45
xG 0.13–0.17 (42%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Niederreiter – Teravainen – Aho11:28
xG 0.46–0.62 (43%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Dzingel – Wallmark – Necas12:02
xG 0.38–0.65 (37%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin17:09
xG 0.94–0.23 (80%)attempts 21–8goals 3–1
- Gardiner – van Riemsdyk14:11
xG 0.12–0.65 (16%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Pesce17:44
xG 0.85–1.59 (35%)attempts 16–17goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Ehlers – Roslovic14:13
xG 0.76–0.40 (65%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Bourque – Lowry – Shore5:47
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Bourque – Lowry – Copp5:58
xG 0.56–0.50 (53%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Shaw – Shore – Luoto5:06
xG 0.09–0.04 (69%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBitetto – Beaulieu14:19
xG 0.83–0.13 (86%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Poolman – Morrissey18:16
xG 0.36–0.42 (46%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Pionk15:18
xG 1.07–1.18 (48%)attempts 14–17goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).