Tue, Dec 17, 2019·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Minnesota Wild 2, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 17 | 010 | 19 | 226 |
| VGK | 08 | 212 | 19 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:20MINMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Eric Staal, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 11:22VGKChandler StephensonAssists: Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 19:50VGKShea TheodoreAssists: Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 6:16VGKTomas NosekGWGAssists: William Carrier · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 18:45MINZach PariseAssists: Kevin Fiala, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:55MINRyan Hartman: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:01VGKNate Schmidt: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:35VGKReilly Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:58VGKMark Stone: Interference2 min
- P2 16:08VGKChandler Stephenson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:03VGKMarc-Andre Fleury: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Johnson – Donato – Kunin6:00
xG 0.12–0.11 (51%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Foligno – Hartman – Sturm8:25
xG 0.19–0.20 (49%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Zuccarello – Greenway11:07
xG 0.24–0.81 (23%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Parise – Rask – Fiala6:56
xG 0.18–0.75 (19%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunt – Menell9:35
xG 0.29–0.23 (57%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Suter – Dumba16:57
xG 0.51–0.80 (39%)attempts 17–23goals 0–2
- Brodin – Soucy16:30
xG 0.17–1.28 (12%)attempts 6–18goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:32
xG 0.80–0.14 (85%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Stone – Stephenson11:32
xG 0.80–0.44 (65%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Nosek6:50
xG 0.23–0.17 (58%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Stastny – Zykov – Tuch7:17
xG 0.18–0.31 (37%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Holden14:05
xG 0.82–0.44 (65%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- McNabb – Schmidt12:20
xG 0.55–0.27 (67%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Theodore – Hague14:12
xG 0.63–0.38 (62%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).