Wed, Dec 18, 2019·United Center, Chicago
Colorado Avalanche 4, Chicago Blackhawks 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 119 | 210 | 17 | 436 |
| CHI | 16 | 016 | 010 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:41COLIan ColeAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Nikita Zadorov · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 9:48CHIRyan CarpenterAssists: Alex DeBrincat · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 7:49COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Anton Lindholm · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 10:08COLAndre BurakovskyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 17:04COLMikko RantanenENAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.55 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P2 4:14COLAndre Burakovsky: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 13:00CHIBrandon Saad: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:47COLPavel Francouz: Interference2 min
- P3 13:48CHIErik Gustafsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:02COLValeri Nichushkin: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Landeskog
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:43
xG 0.91–0.22 (81%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Calvert – Nieto – Bellemare11:23
xG 0.62–0.33 (65%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Kadri – Burakovsky – Jost10:32
xG 0.37–0.20 (65%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Donskoi – Compher – Nichushkin9:28
xG 0.14–0.34 (30%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarberio – Lindholm8:14
xG 0.52–0.12 (81%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Graves – Girard13:42
xG 0.67–0.30 (69%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Zadorov – Girard2:07
xG 0.32–0.05 (87%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Carpenter – DeBrincat – Dach11:37
xG 0.58–0.60 (49%)attempts 14–15goals 1–2
- Kane – Strome – Nylander12:55
xG 0.35–0.50 (41%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Smith – Highmore – Kampf8:07
xG 0.12–0.35 (25%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Toews – Saad – Kubalik11:08
xG 0.13–0.54 (20%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Gustafsson2:23
xG 0.14–0.04 (80%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Keith – Boqvist2:26
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Gustafsson – Gilbert13:47
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).