Wed, Dec 18, 2019·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Edmonton Oilers 1, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 010 | 08 | 118 | 136 |
| STL | 015 | 119 | 110 | 244 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:04STLBrayden SchennAssists: Vince Dunn, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 6:23STLMackenzie MacEachernGWGAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, David Perron · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 18:10EDMJames NealAssists: Zack Kassian, Leon Draisaitl · Tip-in, 0.02 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:56EDMConnor McDavid: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:35STLOskar Sundqvist: Holding2 min
- P1 19:23STLAlex Pietrangelo: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:16EDMOscar Klefbom: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:46EDMKris Russell: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:18EDMOscar Klefbom: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:28STLRobert Thomas: Interference2 min
- P2 14:13EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 18:10STLDavid Perron: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Gagner – Nugent-Hopkins2:59
xG 0.17–0.01 (93%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Neal – Gagner – Draisaitl5:45
xG 0.22–0.18 (56%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Neal – Gagner – McDavid2:15
xG 0.03–0.00 (91%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Nygard – Haas3:38
xG 0.02–0.03 (46%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bear13:45
xG 0.94–0.71 (57%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Klefbom – Jones2:04
xG 0.01–0.08 (9%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Larsson – Klefbom12:09
xG 0.52–0.70 (42%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – MacEachern – de la Rose4:31
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Schenn – Schwartz – Kyrou7:56
xG 0.54–0.21 (72%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Steen – Sanford – Thomas7:16
xG 0.23–0.11 (67%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Sundqvist9:51
xG 0.62–0.68 (48%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Faulk14:25
xG 1.30–0.68 (66%)attempts 23–12goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Dunn8:15
xG 0.39–0.29 (57%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Parayko16:38
xG 0.33–0.53 (39%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).