Thu, Dec 19, 2019·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Buffalo Sabres 1, Philadelphia Flyers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 05 | 04 | 18 | 117 |
| PHI | 314 | 311 | 04 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:04PHIMikhail VorobyevAssists: Philippe Myers, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 15:32PHIJames van RiemsdykGWGAssists: Kevin Hayes, Matt Niskanen · Deflected, 0.23 xG0–2
- P1 17:05PHIMatt NiskanenPPAssists: Kevin Hayes, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–3
- P2 8:20PHIIvan ProvorovPPAssists: Travis Konecny, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–4
- P2 9:22PHITyler PitlickUnassisted · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–5
- P2 12:27PHIJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Travis Konecny, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–6
- P3 11:35BUFVictor OlofssonPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Marcus Johansson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:55PHIMorgan Frost: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:32BUFKyle Okposo: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
- P2 1:58BUFColin Miller: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:15BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:07BUFBrandon Montour: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:36BUFRasmus Dahlin: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:36BUFRasmus Dahlin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:36PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:01PHIJakub Voracek: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Johansson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Sheary – Asplund2:42
xG 0.43–0.01 (97%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Johansson – Reinhart – Olofsson14:57
xG 0.39–0.34 (53%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Okposo – Larsson – Girgensons2:07
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Skinner – Vesey – Asplund2:23
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Ristolainen8:27
xG 0.49–0.04 (92%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Miller – McCabe7:01
xG 0.20–0.21 (48%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Miller – Dahlin6:18
xG 0.03–0.20 (11%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Couturier – Konecny9:59
xG 0.74–0.14 (84%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Hayes – Aube-Kubel9:04
xG 0.36–0.19 (65%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Voracek – Kase – Frost10:57
xG 0.13–0.09 (60%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Andreoff – Vorobyev10:49
xG 0.17–0.70 (19%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Myers15:52
xG 0.77–0.37 (68%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Provorov15:29
xG 0.87–0.54 (61%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Braun – Sanheim14:34
xG 0.47–0.35 (58%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).