Thu, Dec 19, 2019·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Nashville Predators 4, Ottawa Senators 5 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 117 | 03 | 317 | 00 | 437 |
| OTT | 010 | 310 | 13 | 11 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:16NSHCraig SmithAssists: Kyle Turris · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 3:02OTTColin WhiteAssists: Chris Tierney, Mark Borowiecki · Snap, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 3:52OTTVladislav NamestnikovSHAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 18:41OTTArtem AnisimovAssists: Tyler Ennis, Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 1:20OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Anthony Duclair · Snap, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 1:35NSHRocco GrimaldiAssists: Matt Duchene, Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 9:39NSHRyan JohansenPPAssists: Ryan Ellis, Matt Duchene · Deflected, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 13:07NSHRoman JosiUnassisted · Backhand, 0.07 xG4–4
- OT 2:40OTTAnthony DuclairPPGWGAssists: Thomas Chabot, Brady Tkachuk · Slap, 0.11 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
- P2 1:51NSHColton Sissons: Holding2 min
- P2 2:12OTTThomas Chabot: Interference2 min
- P2 10:59NSHRoman Josi: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:25NSHColin Blackwell: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:12OTTMark Borowiecki: Tripping2 min · PPG
- OT 2:16NSHCalle Jarnkrok: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Brown
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Blackwell12:11
xG 1.15–0.34 (77%)attempts 21–10goals 2–0
- Duchene – Grimaldi – Forsberg10:36
xG 0.46–0.50 (48%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Bonino – Watson – Sissons9:41
xG 0.31–0.37 (45%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Jarnkrok – Johansen – Trenin10:45
xG 0.31–0.38 (44%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis22:32
xG 1.40–0.95 (60%)attempts 31–24goals 2–0
- Ekholm – Fabbro18:56
xG 0.79–0.63 (56%)attempts 19–13goals 0–1
- Hamhuis – Irwin9:57
xG 0.23–0.18 (56%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Brown – Tkachuk15:48
xG 0.83–0.42 (66%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- White – Beaudin – Brown7:28
xG 0.11–0.39 (23%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Tierney – Duclair – Paul13:12
xG 0.38–0.66 (37%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Ennis – Namestnikov5:39
xG 0.12–0.65 (16%)attempts 3–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Brannstrom3:24
xG 0.16–0.07 (71%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Chabot2:29
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Goloubef – Chabot2:34
xG 0.01–0.09 (11%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).