Thu, Dec 19, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Colorado Avalanche 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 016 | 012 | 312 | 340 |
| COL | 011 | 013 | 14 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 4:05COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Samuel Girard · Tip-in, 0.18 xG0–1
- P3 17:04CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Warren Foegele, Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 18:21CARJaccob SlavinGWGAssists: Lucas Wallmark, Jordan Martinook · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 19:54CARSebastian AhoENAssists: Jordan Martinook, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.65 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:56CARJames Reimer: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:34CARLucas Wallmark: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:03CARAndrei Svechnikov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 3:54COLTyson Jost: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 7:50CARDougie Hamilton: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:30CARWarren Foegele: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 14:11COLNazem Kadri: Interference2 min
- P3 2:44CARBrian Gibbons: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:54COLGabriel Landeskog: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Foegele – Svechnikov10:12
xG 0.99–0.30 (77%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Niederreiter – Teravainen – Aho8:37
xG 0.12–0.06 (65%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Gibbons – Martinook – McGinn4:50
xG 0.05–0.04 (56%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Dzingel – Wallmark – Necas8:39
xG 0.21–0.40 (34%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Pesce2:58
xG 0.32–0.04 (89%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Pesce9:16
xG 0.19–0.03 (85%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Slavin12:12
xG 0.30–0.15 (67%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Donskoi – Compher – Nichushkin5:32
xG 0.08–0.19 (29%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Kadri – Burakovsky – Jost7:16
xG 0.27–0.55 (32%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Calvert – Nieto – Bellemare7:42
xG 0.14–0.46 (23%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen11:39
xG 0.41–0.79 (34%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Lindholm5:03
xG 0.25–0.15 (63%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Cole – Zadorov5:09
xG 0.22–0.19 (53%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Johnson – Graves3:33
xG 0.03–0.01 (78%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).