Thu, Dec 19, 2019·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Montréal Canadiens 4, Calgary Flames 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 014 | 216 | 17 | 16 | 443 |
| CGY | 210 | 07 | 17 | 03 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:34CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Elias Lindholm, Andrew Mangiapane · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 19:52CGYElias LindholmPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–2
- P2 9:46MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Shea Weber, Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 13:11MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Ben Chiarot · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 6:25CGYOliver KylingtonAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 11:58MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Nick Cousins, Jordan Weal · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–3
- OT 3:52MTLMax DomiGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.07 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 19:03MTLPhillip Danault: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:11CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 16:49CGYSean Monahan: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:10CGYTobias Rieder: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:10MTLMike Reilly: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestWeal – Cousins – Suzuki10:30
xG 0.52–0.24 (68%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault10:35
xG 0.98–0.88 (53%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Thompson – Barber – Poehling7:40
xG 0.38–0.58 (39%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Armia – Lehkonen – Domi12:39
xG 0.23–0.70 (25%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Fleury10:47
xG 0.43–0.21 (67%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Weber – Chiarot19:35
xG 1.27–1.15 (53%)attempts 26–15goals 2–0
- Petry – Kulak18:12
xG 0.86–1.54 (36%)attempts 12–23goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Rieder – Bennett9:59
xG 0.89–0.21 (81%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Backlund – Gaudreau – Monahan4:58
xG 0.38–0.06 (86%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Mangiapane – Tkachuk12:33
xG 1.01–0.81 (56%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Lucic – Ryan – Dube2:26
xG 0.15–0.05 (76%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie16:55
xG 1.40–0.71 (66%)attempts 20–16goals 1–0
- Andersson – Kylington11:18
xG 0.28–0.64 (31%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Hanifin17:23
xG 0.66–1.12 (37%)attempts 17–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).