Thu, Dec 19, 2019·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Vancouver Canucks 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 114 | 210 | 119 | 00 | 443 |
| VAN | 311 | 08 | 112 | 13 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:49VANAntoine RousselAssists: Adam Gaudette, Jake Virtanen · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P1 7:08VANTanner PearsonPPAssists: Josh Leivo, Jake Virtanen · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P1 13:58VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: William Karlsson, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–2
- P1 19:32VANElias PetterssonAssists: J.T. Miller · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–3
- P2 11:01VGKReilly SmithAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 12:10VGKNick HoldenAssists: Mark Stone, Deryk Engelland · Slap, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 9:19VANElias PetterssonAssists: Brock Boeser · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 15:40VGKMark StoneAssists: Max Pacioretty, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–4
- OT 1:30VANChris TanevGWGAssists: Bo Horvat, Brock Boeser · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:08VGKNicolas Hague: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:28VGKValentin Zykov: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:50VGKDeryk Engelland: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:50VANTyler Motte: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:03VGKShea Theodore: Holding2 min
- P3 0:15VGKReilly Smith: Holding2 min
- P3 11:18VGKChandler Stephenson: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P3 14:31VGKRyan Reaves: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 14:31VANJake Virtanen: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:30VANJordie Benn: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault9:23
xG 1.18–0.12 (91%)attempts 18–7goals 2–0
- Pacioretty – Stone – Stephenson10:58
xG 1.00–0.52 (66%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Stastny – Zykov – Tuch8:05
xG 0.21–0.07 (75%)attempts 9–2goals 0–1
- Reaves – Carrier – Nosek6:05
xG 0.68–0.75 (48%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Schmidt13:21
xG 1.19–0.71 (63%)attempts 17–12goals 2–1
- Schmidt – Theodore3:04
xG 0.48–0.19 (72%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Engelland – Holden8:26
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Beagle – Schaller – Motte10:06
xG 0.39–0.36 (52%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Roussel – Virtanen – Gaudette4:35
xG 0.30–0.31 (49%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Virtanen2:34
xG 0.08–0.13 (39%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Miller – Boeser – Pettersson10:01
xG 0.93–0.98 (49%)attempts 13–12goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- Benn – Stecher11:23
xG 0.32–0.41 (44%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Tanev – Fantenberg2:50
xG 0.17–0.33 (33%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Myers – Fantenberg13:58
xG 0.97–1.29 (43%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).