Fri, Dec 20, 2019·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Dallas Stars 4, Florida Panthers 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 17 | 115 | 29 | 431 |
| FLA | 215 | 59 | 09 | 733 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:37FLAJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Evgenii Dadonov · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 13:10DALDenis GurianovAssists: Corey Perry, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 14:48FLAAnton StralmanAssists: Frank Vatrano, Aleksander Barkov · Tip-in, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 1:21FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Noel Acciari · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 2:52FLAColton SceviourAssists: Dominic Toninato, Mike Matheson · Snap, 0.08 xG1–4
- P2 7:26FLANoel AcciariGWGAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Jonathan Huberdeau · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–5
- P2 7:58FLANoel AcciariAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–6
- P2 11:25FLANoel AcciariUnassisted · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–7
- P2 16:38DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Esa Lindell, Roope Hintz · Slap, 0.07 xG2–7
- P3 7:03DALTyler SeguinAssists: Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–7
- P3 13:02DALJamie BennAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Corey Perry · Snap, 0.11 xG4–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:01DALJason Dickinson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:53FLABrett Connolly: Interference2 min
- P2 11:25DALJohn Klingberg: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 15:24FLAKeith Yandle: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:04DALAndrej Sekera: Holding2 min
- P3 2:18DALCorey Perry: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:27FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:35DALCorey Perry: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Hintz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Seguin – Hintz3:34
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Perry – Dickinson – Gurianov8:08
xG 0.45–0.29 (61%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
- Perry – Benn – Dickinson3:13
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Benn – Dowling – Seguin6:43
xG 0.18–0.24 (43%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Heiskanen6:44
xG 0.52–0.23 (69%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Fedun – Oleksiak7:21
xG 0.54–0.32 (63%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Lindell – Heiskanen12:01
xG 0.30–0.21 (58%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Huberdeau – Acciari11:52
xG 0.68–0.23 (75%)attempts 12–5goals 3–1
- Boyle – Dadonov – Hoffman9:22
xG 0.41–0.22 (65%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Connolly – Barkov – Vatrano12:22
xG 0.16–0.49 (24%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Matheson11:17
xG 0.89–0.38 (70%)attempts 14–4goals 1–3
- Yandle – Brown11:00
xG 0.14–0.07 (68%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Weegar – Ekblad13:28
xG 0.52–0.85 (38%)attempts 12–13goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).