Fri, Dec 20, 2019·Madison Square Garden, New York
Toronto Maple Leafs 6, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 212 | 113 | 315 | 640 |
| NYR | 28 | 14 | 010 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:38TORPierre EngvallAssists: Justin Holl, Ilya Mikheyev · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 11:52TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Kasperi Kapanen · Slap, 0.43 xG2–0
- P1 14:04NYRBrady SkjeiAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
- P1 17:51NYRRyan StromeAssists: Artemi Panarin, Pavel Buchnevich · Snap, 0.25 xG2–2
- P2 2:50TORMitch MarnerPPAssists: Auston Matthews, William Nylander · Deflected, 0.07 xG3–2
- P2 5:27NYRPavel BuchnevichAssists: Marc Staal, Tony DeAngelo · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 2:10TORWilliam NylanderGWGAssists: Auston Matthews, Travis Dermott · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–3
- P3 2:57TORMitch MarnerUnassisted · Snap, 0.16 xG5–3
- P3 16:23TORIlya MikheyevAssists: Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.04 xG6–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:46TORMorgan Rielly: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:29NYRMika Zibanejad: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 1:50NYRBrendan Smith: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:50TORTyson Barrie: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:17NYRAdam Fox: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:06TORDmytro Timashov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Kapanen – Matthews11:55
xG 1.42–0.48 (75%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
- Kerfoot – Engvall – Mikheyev9:23
xG 0.36–0.10 (78%)attempts 13–3goals 2–0
- Spezza – Gauthier – Timashov6:48
xG 0.17–0.32 (34%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Tavares – Hyman – Marner11:05
xG 0.67–1.00 (40%)attempts 9–14goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Rielly14:48
xG 1.98–0.75 (72%)attempts 28–6goals 2–1
- Ceci – Dermott12:22
xG 0.52–0.28 (65%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Holl14:26
xG 0.94–0.99 (49%)attempts 13–19goals 2–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Buchnevich – Panarin12:18
xG 1.00–0.86 (54%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Lemieux – Chytil – Kakko6:42
xG 0.07–0.15 (31%)attempts 1–11goals 0–2
- Kreider – Fast – Zibanejad11:00
xG 0.69–1.71 (29%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren10:09
xG 0.58–0.51 (53%)attempts 7–8goals 1–2
- Staal – DeAngelo10:30
xG 0.53–0.55 (49%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Skjei – Trouba15:31
xG 0.90–1.52 (37%)attempts 15–21goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).