Fri, Dec 20, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 29 | 16 | 211 | 526 |
| EDM | 010 | 29 | 09 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:56PITChad RuhwedelAssists: Dominik Kahun, Zachary Aston-Reese · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 12:56PITJoseph BlandisiAssists: Zachary Aston-Reese, Marcus Pettersson · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 6:41EDMZack KassianAssists: Darnell Nurse, Ethan Bear · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 15:38PITJared McCannGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.31 xG3–1
- P2 19:37EDMRiley SheahanSHAssists: Josh Archibald · Snap, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 0:38PITKris LetangPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust · Slap, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 17:42PITBrandon TanevENAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Teddy Blueger · Wrist, 0.62 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:49PITJoseph Blandisi: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:34PITJohn Marino: Holding2 min
- P2 18:50EDMJoakim Nygard: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 18:36PITEvgeni Malkin: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 18:36EDMMike Smith: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMcCann – Aston-Reese – Kahun12:10
xG 0.41–0.29 (59%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Malkin – Rust – Guentzel16:33
xG 0.97–0.87 (53%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
- Blueger – Simon – Tanev11:41
xG 0.29–0.35 (46%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Galchenyuk – Blandisi – Lafferty5:33
xG 0.03–0.50 (6%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Riikola10:22
xG 0.27–0.15 (65%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Pettersson – Marino17:18
xG 0.95–0.89 (52%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Johnson – Letang20:11
xG 0.32–0.89 (27%)attempts 13–19goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKassian – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid16:03
xG 0.76–0.16 (82%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Chiasson – Nygard – Haas8:42
xG 0.65–0.47 (58%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Neal – Chiasson – Draisaitl2:10
xG 0.13–0.05 (72%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Archibald – Khaira8:01
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Jones12:06
xG 0.54–0.17 (76%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Larsson – Klefbom15:58
xG 0.63–0.74 (46%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
- Nurse – Bear19:19
xG 0.86–1.02 (46%)attempts 13–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).