Sat, Dec 21, 2019·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Los Angeles Kings 2, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 010 | 110 | 17 | 227 |
| BUF | 06 | 211 | 111 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:32LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Blake Lizotte, Austin Wagner · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 7:35BUFRasmus RistolainenAssists: Jimmy Vesey, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 16:48BUFMarco ScandellaAssists: Sam Reinhart · Slap, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 18:27BUFVictor OlofssonENGWGAssists: Sam Reinhart, Jack Eichel · Backhand, 0.59 xG1–3
- P3 19:22LAKDustin BrownAssists: Drew Doughty, Alex Iafallo · Slap, 0.29 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:52BUFBrandon Montour: Interference2 min
- P1 17:08LAKTyler Toffoli: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:33LAKJoakim Ryan: Holding2 min
- P3 5:37LAKJeff Carter: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:37BUFSam Reinhart: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Prokhorkin – Amadio4:53
xG 0.40–0.28 (59%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Carter – Clifford – Wagner2:56
xG 0.19–0.18 (51%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Prokhorkin – Kempe – Lizotte3:28
xG 0.03–0.03 (46%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Kempe – Lizotte3:46
xG 0.04–0.05 (44%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Roy13:59
xG 0.57–0.01 (98%)attempts 16–3goals 1–0
- Clague – Walker14:41
xG 0.58–0.84 (41%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Doughty – Ryan17:45
xG 0.32–0.65 (33%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestReinhart – Olofsson – Eichel15:23
xG 0.41–0.21 (66%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Johansson – Skinner – Vesey7:40
xG 0.08–0.01 (85%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Lazar12:09
xG 0.67–0.62 (52%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Johansson – Skinner – Asplund4:58
xG 0.06–0.43 (12%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Ristolainen13:48
xG 0.71–0.31 (70%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Montour – Dahlin2:01
xG 0.25–0.11 (68%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Montour – Jokiharju2:56
xG 0.01–0.02 (48%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).