Sat, Dec 21, 2019·NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum, Uniondale
Anaheim Ducks 6, New York Islanders 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 29 | 210 | 16 | 03 | 2 | 628 |
| NYI | 212 | 28 | 111 | 02 | 1 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:50NYIAnders LeeAssists: Mathew Barzal, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 16:27ANAMaxime ComtoisAssists: Isac Lundeström, Hampus Lindholm · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 17:03ANASam CarrickUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P1 17:50NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Ryan Pulock, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 5:23ANAAdam HenriqueSHAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Korbinian Holzer · Tip-in, 0.21 xG3–2
- P2 9:20NYIMathew BarzalSHAssists: Anders Lee, Jordan Eberle · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–3
- P2 14:15NYINick LeddyAssists: Brock Nelson, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
- P2 14:41ANAJakob SilfverbergSHAssists: Adam Henrique, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–4
- P3 10:19ANACam FowlerAssists: Nicolas Deslauriers · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–4
- P3 13:19NYIRyan PulockSHAssists: Nick Leddy, Derick Brassard · Slap, 0.03 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. NYI Jordan Eberle stopped
- 2. ANA Ondrej Kase stopped
- 3. NYI Mathew Barzal stopped
- 4. ANA Maxime Comtois scored
- 5. NYI Josh Bailey scored
- 6. ANA Jakob Silfverberg scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:13NYICasey Cizikas: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:16NYIDerick Brassard: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:44ANACam Fowler: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:40ANASam Steel: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:41NYIRoss Johnston: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 16:41NYICasey Cizikas: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:08ANAJosh Manson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carrick won the faceoff against Komarov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestDeslauriers – Carrick – Rowney10:16
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Shore9:03
xG 0.22–0.39 (36%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Kase – Steel – Jones11:25
xG 0.30–0.50 (37%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Rakell – Comtois – Lundeström10:41
xG 0.04–0.79 (5%)attempts 3–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Holzer – Del Zotto10:05
xG 0.41–0.48 (46%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Gudbranson – Lindholm2:22
xG 0.05–0.13 (26%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Manson – Lindholm15:16
xG 0.35–0.80 (30%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Lee – Barzal14:50
xG 1.10–0.70 (61%)attempts 19–11goals 2–3
- Bailey – Nelson – Beauvillier9:58
xG 0.53–0.24 (69%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Brassard – Cizikas – Kuhnhackl8:30
xG 0.34–0.08 (81%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Komarov – Martin – Cizikas2:09
xG 0.03–0.05 (38%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock13:11
xG 0.78–0.10 (89%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Toews11:27
xG 0.82–0.22 (79%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Leddy – Toews2:41
xG 0.03–0.13 (21%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).