Sat, Dec 21, 2019·TD Garden, Boston
Nashville Predators 4, Boston Bruins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 08 | 111 | 27 | 13 | 429 |
| BOS | 011 | 28 | 111 | 02 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:30BOSPar LindholmAssists: Brett Ritchie, Sean Kuraly · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 12:14NSHRoman JosiAssists: Ryan Johansen · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 19:12BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: Torey Krug · Snap, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 7:35NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Ryan Johansen, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P3 8:10NSHRoman JosiUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 18:55BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: David Pastrnak, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- OT 4:05NSHRyan EllisGWGAssists: Ryan Johansen, Kyle Turris · Snap, 0.25 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:26NSHViktor Arvidsson: Holding2 min
- P1 7:13BOSAnders Bjork: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:10BOSDavid Krejci: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:23NSHDan Hamhuis: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:19BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:27NSHCraig Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:56NSHFilip Forsberg: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Forsberg – Sissons9:01
xG 0.40–0.23 (63%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Grimaldi10:57
xG 0.31–0.40 (44%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Johansen – Arvidsson8:17
xG 0.05–0.29 (15%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Turris – Smith – Blackwell7:06
xG 0.01–0.73 (2%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Irwin10:04
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Fabbro12:28
xG 0.24–0.66 (27%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis17:25
xG 0.42–1.59 (21%)attempts 15–21goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak11:53
xG 0.74–0.19 (79%)attempts 17–6goals 0–1
- Krejci – Heinen – DeBrusk8:53
xG 0.47–0.14 (77%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Coyle – Wagner – Bjork9:07
xG 0.27–0.07 (80%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Ritchie – Lindholm6:44
xG 0.41–0.33 (56%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – McAvoy11:29
xG 0.65–0.37 (64%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Grzelcyk – Clifton7:34
xG 0.51–0.25 (67%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Chara – Clifton4:22
xG 0.24–0.01 (95%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).