Sat, Dec 21, 2019·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Ottawa Senators 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 115 | 28 | 18 | 07 | 1 | 538 |
| OTT | 017 | 38 | 18 | 01 | 0 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:16PHIKevin HayesPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Brian Elliott · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
- P2 1:03PHIJames van RiemsdykUnassisted · Backhand, 0.01 xG2–0
- P2 6:00OTTTyler EnnisAssists: Andreas Englund, Colin White · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 6:25OTTMark BorowieckiAssists: Erik Brannstrom, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 18:21OTTAnthony DuclairPPUnassisted · Snap, 0.22 xG2–3
- P2 19:12PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Tyler Pitlick, Morgan Frost · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–3
- P3 1:10PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Philippe Myers · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–3
- P3 10:17OTTTyler EnnisAssists: Anthony Duclair, Mark Borowiecki · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. PHI Morgan Frost stopped
- 2. OTT Tyler Ennis stopped
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 4. OTT Anthony Duclair stopped
- 5. PHI Sean Couturier scored
- 6. OTT Vladislav Namestnikov stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:42OTTThomas Chabot: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:45PHIAndy Andreoff: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:27OTTThomas Chabot: Holding2 min
- P1 15:53PHIClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:19OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:21PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Holding2 min
- P2 17:21PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:46OTTErik Brannstrom: Interference2 min
- P3 17:10OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Tkachuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Couturier – Konecny14:08
xG 0.98–0.52 (65%)attempts 23–8goals 0–1
- Voracek – Pitlick – Frost6:29
xG 0.49–0.11 (81%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Hayes – Aube-Kubel11:02
xG 0.40–0.38 (52%)attempts 12–12goals 2–1
- Stewart – Andreoff – Vorobyev3:25
xG 0.07–0.51 (12%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestProvorov – Myers11:38
xG 0.57–0.36 (61%)attempts 14–14goals 2–1
- Gostisbehere – Hagg9:23
xG 0.14–0.21 (40%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Braun – Sanheim14:51
xG 0.36–0.92 (28%)attempts 14–9goals 0–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestEnnis – Tierney – Duclair2:43
xG 0.42–0.04 (92%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Anisimov – Ennis – Namestnikov2:50
xG 0.01–0.00 (81%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Tierney – Duclair – Paul4:41
xG 0.04–0.09 (32%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Pageau – Brown – Tkachuk11:06
xG 0.43–0.49 (47%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnglund – Lajoie7:00
xG 0.59–0.02 (97%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – Chabot4:34
xG 0.47–0.36 (57%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – Brannstrom11:33
xG 0.05–0.30 (13%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).