Sat, Dec 21, 2019·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Florida Panthers 4, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 19 | 18 | 25 | 422 |
| CAR | 013 | 011 | 220 | 244 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:07FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Brian Boyle · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 11:34FLABrian BoylePPAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Brett Connolly · Tip-in, 0.22 xG2–0
- P3 0:26FLAJonathan HuberdeauPPGWGAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–0
- P3 9:16CARNino NiederreiterAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.34 xG3–1
- P3 10:41FLANoel AcciariAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Keith Yandle · Snap, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 12:59CARLucas WallmarkAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 19:56FLAMark Pysyk: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:52CARAndrei Svechnikov: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:48CARLucas Wallmark: Interference2 min
- P2 19:30CARAndrei Svechnikov: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:30FLAJoshua Brown: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:30CARJoel Edmundson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:30CARAndrei Svechnikov: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:30FLABrett Connolly: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 1:39FLADominic Toninato: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:17FLABrian Boyle: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Huberdeau – Acciari9:47
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Boyle – Dadonov – Hoffman8:30
xG 0.37–0.63 (37%)attempts 2–13goals 1–0
- Connolly – Barkov – Vatrano10:30
xG 0.08–0.39 (18%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Ekblad8:49
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Stralman – Matheson13:38
xG 0.26–0.48 (35%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
- Yandle – Brown9:54
xG 0.57–0.90 (39%)attempts 5–18goals 2–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Dzingel – Necas10:34
xG 1.01–0.61 (62%)attempts 18–5goals 0–1
- Staal – Foegele – Svechnikov9:26
xG 0.47–0.21 (69%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Teravainen – Aho10:35
xG 0.69–0.47 (59%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Martinook – McGinn – Wallmark8:24
xG 0.65–0.50 (57%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin12:57
xG 1.25–0.18 (87%)attempts 25–5goals 1–0
- Gardiner – van Riemsdyk10:13
xG 1.07–0.46 (70%)attempts 17–5goals 0–1
- Gardiner – Pesce2:45
xG 0.35–0.06 (85%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).