Sat, Dec 21, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Montréal Canadiens 3, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 110 | 17 | 326 |
| EDM | 215 | 13 | 18 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:30EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Connor McDavid, Zack Kassian · Snap, 0.32 xG0–1
- P1 11:51EDMJosh ArchibaldAssists: Ethan Bear, Joakim Nygard · Slap, 0.28 xG0–2
- P1 14:19MTLJeff PetrySHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 8:29MTLPhillip DanaultPPAssists: Jeff Petry, Nick Suzuki · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 15:40EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–3
- P3 1:09MTLMax DomiAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Jeff Petry · Snap, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 7:48EDMRiley SheahanGWGAssists: Josh Archibald · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:01MTLJordan Weal: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:28MTLPhillip Danault: Holding2 min
- P2 6:40EDMCaleb Jones: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:10MTLBen Chiarot: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:10EDMZack Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:53MTLJordan Weal: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:54MTLCale Fleury: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:06MTLNick Cousins: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Barber – Poehling5:32
xG 0.21–0.03 (88%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault10:57
xG 0.52–0.38 (57%)attempts 16–3goals 0–1
- Tatar – Gallagher – Domi2:57
xG 0.08–0.24 (26%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
- Weal – Cousins – Suzuki9:50
xG 0.08–0.24 (26%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Petry3:21
xG 0.24–0.01 (95%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Petry – Fleury2:36
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Petry – Reilly4:27
xG 0.20–0.05 (80%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSheahan – Archibald – Nygard7:54
xG 0.51–0.20 (71%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Sheahan – Archibald – Granlund2:05
xG 0.24–0.06 (81%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Neal – Chiasson – Nugent-Hopkins7:41
xG 0.32–0.19 (63%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Kassian – Draisaitl – McDavid12:16
xG 0.50–0.52 (49%)attempts 6–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Jones10:52
xG 0.69–0.15 (82%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Nurse – Bear16:59
xG 0.89–0.91 (50%)attempts 11–18goals 2–1
- Larsson – Klefbom17:00
xG 0.25–0.50 (33%)attempts 8–27goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).