Sat, Dec 21, 2019·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 00 | 120 | 09 | 129 |
| VAN | 25 | 16 | 13 | 414 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:10VANJake VirtanenPPAssists: Tyler Myers, Antoine Roussel · Slap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 17:00VANJ.T. MillerPPGWGAssists: Oscar Fantenberg, Chris Tanev · Deflected, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 15:28PITJake GuentzelPPAssists: Jared McCann, Evgeni Malkin · Deflected, 0.32 xG1–2
- P2 16:12VANElias PetterssonAssists: Tyler Myers, J.T. Miller · Snap, 0.34 xG1–3
- P3 14:31VANBrock BoeserAssists: Elias Pettersson · Snap, 0.23 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:24PITDominik Simon: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 13:05PITBrandon Tanev: Holding2 min
- P1 13:51PITJack Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:57VANTanner Pearson: Interference2 min
- P2 13:25VANAdam Gaudette: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 19:38VANOscar Fantenberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:58VANOscar Fantenberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:35PITBrandon Tanev: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Rust – Guentzel10:37
xG 1.07–0.03 (97%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- McCann – Aston-Reese – Kahun8:19
xG 0.21–0.09 (71%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Galchenyuk – Blandisi – Lafferty4:15
xG 0.04–0.02 (67%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Blueger – Simon – Tanev9:11
xG 0.29–0.42 (41%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Letang13:42
xG 1.21–0.32 (79%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Ruhwedel – Riikola11:29
xG 0.17–0.29 (37%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Pettersson – Marino11:26
xG 0.32–0.45 (42%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Boeser – Pettersson10:49
xG 0.86–0.20 (81%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- Beagle – Schaller – Motte8:19
xG 0.28–0.21 (58%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Virtanen2:32
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Roussel – Virtanen – Gaudette7:02
xG 0.04–0.31 (11%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Hughes2:56
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Myers – Fantenberg11:45
xG 0.19–0.13 (58%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Benn – Stecher10:12
xG 0.50–0.61 (45%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).