Sat, Dec 21, 2019·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
St. Louis Blues 5, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 06 | 29 | 313 | 528 |
| SJS | 015 | 213 | 08 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:42SJSBrent BurnsPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Tomas Hertl · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 2:04STLJordan KyrouAssists: Jaden Schwartz · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 5:30STLJaden SchwartzPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, David Perron · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 15:36SJSStefan NoesenAssists: Brenden Dillon, Brent Burns · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 11:07STLAlex PietrangeloGWGAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 18:52STLRyan O'ReillyENAssists: Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.44 xG4–2
- P3 19:52STLAlex PietrangeloENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.50 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 19:07STLRyan O'Reilly: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:21SJSEvander Kane: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 6:32SJSJoe Thornton: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 0:40STLJustin Faulk: Holding2 min
- P3 16:53STLAlexander Steen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Goodrow
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Schwartz – Barbashev3:31
xG 0.13–0.08 (62%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Schenn – Schwartz – Kyrou11:24
xG 0.19–0.18 (51%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Sundqvist13:51
xG 0.63–0.82 (44%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- MacEachern – de la Rose – Barbashev8:08
xG 0.07–0.27 (21%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Faulk17:38
xG 0.72–0.47 (60%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Parayko – Dunn4:26
xG 0.32–0.09 (78%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Faulk – Dunn2:53
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestSorensen – Goodrow – Meier12:42
xG 0.56–0.22 (72%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Noesen – Karlsson – Kellman8:20
xG 0.36–0.04 (90%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Thornton – Hertl – Labanc11:16
xG 0.58–0.48 (55%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Marleau – Couture – Kane12:43
xG 0.41–0.60 (41%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Dillon19:13
xG 0.69–0.36 (66%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Heed – Middleton9:05
xG 0.35–0.10 (77%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Karlsson17:25
xG 0.92–0.74 (55%)attempts 20–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).