Sun, Dec 22, 2019·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Vegas Golden Knights 3, San Jose Sharks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 013 | 110 | 214 | 337 |
| SJS | 07 | 011 | 120 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 17:31VGKPaul StastnyAssists: Alex Tuch, Valentin Zykov · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P3 3:54SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Brent Burns, Tomas Hertl · Snap, 0.18 xG1–1
- P3 8:05VGKShea TheodoreGWGAssists: William Karlsson, Nicolas Hague · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 16:35VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Reilly Smith, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:30SJSEvander Kane: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:17SJSErik Karlsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 7:27VGKWilliam Carrier: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:08SJSBrent Burns: Elbowing2 min
- P2 18:49VGKRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:49SJSBrenden Dillon: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:42VGKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:03SJSEvander Kane: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:03VGKBrayden McNabb: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 17:44VGKChandler Stephenson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Goodrow
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Carrier – Nosek7:15
xG 0.70–0.11 (87%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Stone – Stephenson12:52
xG 1.30–0.76 (63%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
- Stastny – Zykov – Tuch6:16
xG 0.64–0.15 (81%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault8:51
xG 0.47–0.50 (49%)attempts 14–11goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestTheodore – Hague11:08
xG 1.40–0.83 (63%)attempts 25–13goals 1–0
- McNabb – Schmidt14:10
xG 1.11–0.67 (62%)attempts 21–13goals 1–0
- Engelland – Merrill14:01
xG 0.86–0.57 (60%)attempts 16–17goals 1–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Sorensen – Goodrow – Meier6:16
xG 0.18–0.17 (52%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Thornton – Hertl – Labanc5:56
xG 0.12–0.30 (29%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Marleau – Couture – Kane6:54
xG 0.18–0.53 (26%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Noesen – Karlsson – Kellman6:14
xG 0.18–0.55 (25%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Dillon14:34
xG 0.95–0.88 (52%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
- Heed – Middleton8:34
xG 0.37–0.51 (42%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Karlsson14:16
xG 0.63–1.57 (29%)attempts 17–24goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).