Mon, Dec 23, 2019·TD Garden, Boston
Washington Capitals 3, Boston Bruins 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 08 | 117 | 217 | 342 |
| BOS | 411 | 12 | 24 | 717 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:37BOSJake DeBruskPPAssists: David Krejci, Matt Grzelcyk · Snap, 0.46 xG0–1
- P1 13:29BOSBrad MarchandAssists: David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–2
- P1 13:56BOSAnders BjorkAssists: Charlie Coyle, Sean Kuraly · Slap, 0.10 xG0–3
- P1 18:57BOSPatrice BergeronPPGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, David Krejci · Tip-in, 0.22 xG0–4
- P2 6:55BOSCharlie CoyleSHAssists: Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–5
- P2 14:35WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Tom Wilson, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–5
- P3 15:29WSHLars EllerAssists: Jakub Vrana, Radko Gudas · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–5
- P3 16:50BOSDavid KrejciENAssists: Sean Kuraly · Wrist, 0.67 xG2–6
- P3 17:47WSHGarnet HathawayAssists: Jonas Siegenthaler · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–6
- P3 19:32BOSPatrice BergeronENAssists: Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.67 xG3–7
Penalties (16)
- P1 1:30WSHNick Jensen: High sticking2 min
- P1 5:28WSHRadko Gudas: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:54BOSCharlie McAvoy: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:46BOSConnor Clifton: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:46WSHGarnet Hathaway: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:25WSHJakub Vrana: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:25WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:05BOSJake DeBrusk: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:06BOSDavid Krejci: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:53WSHJohn Carlson: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:59WSHAlex Ovechkin: Holding2 min
- P3 7:28BOSJake DeBrusk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 13:26WSHTom Wilson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:26WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:26BOSJake DeBrusk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 13:26BOSDavid Pastrnak: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Hagelin – Eller2:37
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Dowd – Leipsic – Hathaway6:08
xG 0.34–0.10 (77%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Eller – Panik2:08
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Wilson7:46
xG 0.46–0.35 (57%)attempts 12–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Siegenthaler5:37
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Orlov – Gudas4:11
xG 0.34–0.01 (96%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Jensen – Kempny5:10
xG 0.29–0.10 (73%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Kuraly – Bjork7:02
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
- Nordstrom – Ritchie – Lindholm6:49
xG 0.10–0.28 (27%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak9:37
xG 0.35–0.58 (38%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
- Krejci – Heinen – DeBrusk7:11
xG 0.05–0.35 (13%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Carlo2:47
xG 0.24–0.03 (90%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy3:11
xG 0.09–0.10 (46%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Clifton – McAvoy2:02
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).