Mon, Dec 23, 2019·NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum, Uniondale
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 013 | 217 | 15 | 335 |
| NYI | 19 | 117 | 011 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:17NYIAnders LeeAssists: Mathew Barzal, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 6:18CBJKevin StenlundPPAssists: Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 9:34CBJNathan GerbeAssists: Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 13:40NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Jordan Eberle · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 16:31CBJVladislav GavrikovGWGAssists: Alexandre Texier, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:25CBJNathan Gerbe: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:39NYIJohnny Boychuk: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 4:34CBJGustav Nyquist: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:34NYIMathew Barzal: Embellishment2 min
- P3 6:38CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:34NYIJordan Eberle: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGerbe – Foligno – Wennberg10:28
xG 0.85–0.48 (64%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Dubois – Texier – Robinson8:43
xG 0.42–0.21 (67%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Nash – MacInnis – Lilja8:32
xG 0.07–0.14 (33%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Jenner – Stenlund12:53
xG 0.55–1.02 (35%)attempts 11–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHarrington – Kukan10:20
xG 0.87–0.29 (75%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Jones – Gavrikov2:05
xG 0.25–0.01 (95%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Jones – Werenski16:42
xG 0.62–0.67 (48%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Lee – Barzal13:38
xG 1.23–0.65 (65%)attempts 21–10goals 2–0
- Martin – Cizikas – Kuhnhackl6:57
xG 0.58–0.41 (59%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Ladd – Bailey – Dal Colle7:19
xG 0.06–0.16 (27%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Brassard – Nelson – Beauvillier11:04
xG 0.11–0.60 (15%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy14:39
xG 1.04–0.45 (70%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Pelech – Pulock2:50
xG 0.22–0.09 (71%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Toews2:04
xG 0.08–0.02 (78%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).