Mon, Dec 23, 2019·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Montréal Canadiens 6, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 217 | 317 | 114 | 648 |
| WPG | 116 | 16 | 07 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:30WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 15:06MTLTomas TatarPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 16:38MTLTomas TatarAssists: Shea Weber, Brendan Gallagher · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 4:37MTLPhillip DanaultGWGAssists: Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–1
- P2 8:56MTLPhillip DanaultUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–1
- P2 16:14WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–2
- P2 19:20MTLMax DomiAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.24 xG5–2
- P3 11:08MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Max Domi · Slap, 0.33 xG6–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:06MTLBen Chiarot: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 13:47WPGNeal Pionk: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:14MTLShea Weber: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 8:52WPGJack Roslovic: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:44MTLNate Thompson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Wheeler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault12:11
xG 1.55–0.53 (74%)attempts 26–8goals 2–0
- Lehkonen – Domi – Suzuki4:10
xG 0.73–0.07 (92%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Weal – Cousins – Suzuki6:09
xG 0.40–0.29 (58%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Thompson – Barber – Poehling6:57
xG 0.03–0.10 (25%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Kulak13:59
xG 1.78–0.12 (94%)attempts 25–6goals 2–0
- Weber – Mete2:28
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Mete – Fleury9:08
xG 0.45–0.19 (70%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Bourque – Lowry – Appleton10:04
xG 0.39–0.58 (40%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Shaw – Shore – Harkins6:37
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Laine15:11
xG 0.52–1.25 (29%)attempts 14–19goals 1–2
- Wheeler – Ehlers – Roslovic12:31
xG 0.62–1.72 (26%)attempts 12–21goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Bitetto – Beaulieu14:32
xG 0.55–1.06 (34%)attempts 9–20goals 0–1
- Poolman – Morrissey17:40
xG 0.51–1.32 (28%)attempts 13–24goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Pionk15:02
xG 0.56–1.67 (25%)attempts 16–22goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).