Mon, Dec 23, 2019·United Center, Chicago
New Jersey Devils 7, Chicago Blackhawks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 18 | 423 | 213 | 744 |
| CHI | 114 | 08 | 011 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:21CHIZack SmithAssists: David Kampf, Matthew Highmore · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 14:46NJDJack HughesAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Sami Vatanen · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 0:51NJDP.K. SubbanGWGAssists: Jesper Bratt, Kyle Palmieri · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 7:22NJDDamon SeversonAssists: Nikita Gusev, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 10:40NJDJohn HaydenAssists: Will Butcher, Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
- P2 17:22NJDTravis ZajacSHAssists: Blake Coleman, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.29 xG5–1
- P3 0:18NJDBlake ColemanAssists: Damon Severson, Nikita Gusev · Wrist, 0.11 xG6–1
- P3 18:21NJDPavel ZachaAssists: Nikita Gusev, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.07 xG7–1
Penalties (15)
- P1 0:37NJDJesper Boqvist: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:22CHIDennis Gilbert: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:22NJDJohn Hayden: Instigator2 min
- P1 8:22NJDJohn Hayden: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:22NJDJohn Hayden: Misconduct10 min
- P1 9:23CHIDylan Strome: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:16NJDWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:16CHIJonathan Toews: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:54NJDTravis Zajac: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:37NJDMirco Mueller: Boarding2 min
- P2 7:48NJDPavel Zacha: Elbowing2 min
- P2 16:47NJDSami Vatanen: Holding2 min
- P3 7:43CHIPatrick Kane: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:10NJDMirco Mueller: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:48CHIDavid Kampf: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Coleman – Gusev6:30
xG 0.52–0.06 (90%)attempts 11–3goals 2–0
- Palmieri – Bratt – Hischier4:22
xG 0.44–0.04 (92%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Hayden – Wood – Zacha2:03
xG 0.20–0.06 (77%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Bratt – Hughes2:15
xG 0.12–0.07 (64%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Subban9:08
xG 0.96–0.09 (92%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Severson – Mueller11:40
xG 1.19–0.41 (74%)attempts 19–10goals 3–0
- Vatanen – Butcher8:50
xG 0.53–0.20 (72%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestCarpenter – DeBrincat – Dach7:49
xG 0.47–0.22 (68%)attempts 10–6goals 0–2
- Kane – Strome – Nylander3:17
xG 0.20–0.21 (49%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Smith – Highmore – Kampf7:24
xG 0.67–0.72 (48%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Quenneville – Strome – Nylander3:18
xG 0.10–0.17 (36%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Gustafsson6:35
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Murphy – Maatta2:48
xG 0.07–0.10 (42%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Maatta – Gilbert8:57
xG 0.84–0.91 (48%)attempts 13–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).