Mon, Dec 23, 2019·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
St. Louis Blues 4, Los Angeles Kings 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 415 | 07 | 06 | 428 |
| LAK | 17 | 08 | 015 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:51STLBrayden SchennAssists: Vince Dunn, Robert Bortuzzo · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 5:43STLJaden SchwartzPPGWGAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, David Perron · Slap, 0.45 xG2–0
- P1 11:22STLVince DunnAssists: Jacob de la Rose · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–0
- P1 12:21STLBrayden SchennPPAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, David Perron · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–0
- P1 18:53LAKAlex IafalloPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar · Tip-in, 0.07 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:36LAKBen Hutton: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:55LAKAnze Kopitar: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 18:35STLJustin Faulk: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 15:59STLJay Bouwmeester: Interference2 min
- P3 2:22STLTyler Bozak: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:05STLAlex Pietrangelo: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:15STLOskar Sundqvist: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – O'Reilly – Sundqvist13:23
xG 0.78–0.48 (62%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- MacEachern – de la Rose – Barbashev8:13
xG 0.51–0.28 (65%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Schenn – Schwartz – Kyrou11:43
xG 0.48–0.55 (47%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Steen – Bozak – Thomas9:26
xG 0.28–0.53 (34%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Faulk16:59
xG 1.04–0.58 (64%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Parayko17:59
xG 0.66–0.67 (50%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Dunn11:24
xG 0.34–0.80 (30%)attempts 7–16goals 2–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Prokhorkin – Amadio5:52
xG 0.80–0.22 (78%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Carter – Clifford – Luff7:52
xG 0.55–0.05 (92%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Kempe – Wagner – Lizotte7:12
xG 0.23–0.21 (52%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo13:28
xG 0.27–1.04 (21%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Roy15:41
xG 1.19–0.35 (78%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Roy – Walker2:30
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Doughty – Ryan19:04
xG 0.38–1.13 (25%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).