Fri, Dec 27, 2019·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Boston Bruins 3, Buffalo Sabres 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 18 | 112 | 15 | 325 |
| BUF | 011 | 05 | 010 | 026 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:38BOSPatrice BergeronPPGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand · Slap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 18:26BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak · Snap, 0.21 xG2–0
- P3 18:06BOSBrandon CarloENAssists: Charlie Coyle, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.66 xG3–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:38BOSDavid Pastrnak: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:37BUFEvan Rodrigues: Holding2 min
- P1 19:31BUFMarcus Johansson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 14:41BUFBrandon Montour: Holding2 min
- P3 5:12BUFSam Reinhart: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:12BOSConnor Clifton: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:59BUFLinus Ullmark: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:49BOSDanton Heinen: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak10:51
xG 0.87–0.29 (75%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Krejci – Heinen – DeBrusk10:08
xG 0.29–0.32 (48%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Wagner – Nordstrom – Lindholm6:34
xG 0.18–0.27 (40%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Coyle – Kuraly – Bjork10:01
xG 0.13–0.42 (24%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Carlo17:52
xG 0.60–0.53 (53%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Clifton14:30
xG 0.70–0.71 (50%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Kampfer – Moore8:38
xG 0.21–0.31 (41%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Girgensons – Lazar8:32
xG 0.26–0.16 (61%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Sheary – Rodrigues – Asplund4:31
xG 0.29–0.29 (50%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Johansson – Skinner – Vesey8:17
xG 0.41–0.46 (47%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel14:45
xG 0.40–0.55 (42%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Dahlin8:27
xG 0.31–0.05 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen11:14
xG 0.60–0.38 (61%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin3:03
xG 0.15–0.14 (52%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).