Fri, Dec 27, 2019·Prudential Center, Newark
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, New Jersey Devils 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 219 | 19 | 15 | 14 | 537 |
| NJD | 19 | 314 | 05 | 00 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:33NJDNico HischierAssists: Jesper Bratt, Kyle Palmieri · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 16:56TORZach HymanPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–1
- P1 17:15TORIlya MikheyevAssists: John Tavares, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 1:42NJDNikita GusevPPAssists: Nico Hischier, Sami Vatanen · Snap, 0.28 xG2–2
- P2 5:16TORKasperi KapanenAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, John Tavares · Snap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 7:01NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- P2 10:11NJDJesper BrattAssists: Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 8:15TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: William Nylander, Tyson Barrie · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–4
- OT 2:38TORWilliam NylanderGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.18 xG5–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:26NJDMiles Wood: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 1:27TORMitch Marner: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:33TORJake Muzzin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:12TORTyson Barrie: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:28NJDNikita Gusev: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 18:37NJDMiles Wood: Holding2 min
- P3 18:37TORZach Hyman: Embellishment2 min
- P3 19:31NJDBlake Coleman: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Nylander – Mikheyev8:00
xG 0.89–0.34 (73%)attempts 14–3goals 1–1
- Kerfoot – Kapanen – Engvall11:50
xG 0.67–0.22 (76%)attempts 14–2goals 0–1
- Tavares – Hyman – Marner3:04
xG 0.09–0.13 (40%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Spezza – Gauthier – Timashov4:39
xG 0.07–0.29 (19%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Holl15:48
xG 1.43–0.97 (60%)attempts 22–14goals 1–1
- Rielly – Ceci2:13
xG 0.11–0.09 (55%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Ceci – Dermott11:16
xG 0.22–0.34 (40%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Coleman – Gusev12:20
xG 0.92–0.30 (75%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Wood – Hughes10:39
xG 0.60–0.64 (48%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Hayden – Rooney – Boqvist5:53
xG 0.19–0.29 (40%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Bratt – Hischier9:45
xG 0.54–0.72 (43%)attempts 5–12goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Mueller13:02
xG 0.74–0.30 (71%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Butcher7:36
xG 0.51–0.52 (49%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Vatanen – Mueller2:05
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).