Fri, Dec 27, 2019·Madison Square Garden, New York
Carolina Hurricanes 3, New York Rangers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 115 | 113 | 114 | 342 |
| NYR | 19 | 310 | 15 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:15CARLucas WallmarkAssists: Teuvo Teravainen · Slap, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 16:31NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Chris Kreider, Tony DeAngelo · Snap, 0.52 xG1–1
- P2 1:27NYRChris KreiderAssists: Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 7:29NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Filip Chytil, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P2 13:14NYRMika ZibanejadPPGWGAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–4
- P2 17:11CARBrett PesceAssists: Lucas Wallmark, Brock McGinn · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 1:40CARSebastian AhoAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Joel Edmundson · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 13:49NYRRyan StromeAssists: Artemi Panarin, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:09NYRChris Kreider: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:01NYRAdam Fox: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:24CARWarren Foegele: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 2:39NYRRyan Strome: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:37NYRBrendan Lemieux: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:36CARJoel Edmundson: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:18CARJake Gardiner: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 4:12CARSebastian Aho: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:54NYRChris Kreider: Illegal check to head2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMartinook – McGinn – Wallmark7:09
xG 0.41–0.01 (98%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Niederreiter – Teravainen – Aho8:37
xG 0.43–0.17 (71%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Staal – Foegele – Svechnikov10:36
xG 0.26–0.56 (32%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Haula – Dzingel – Necas10:57
xG 0.22–0.72 (23%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin14:05
xG 0.93–0.05 (95%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Gardiner – van Riemsdyk12:22
xG 0.51–0.86 (37%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Pesce11:38
xG 0.28–0.64 (31%)attempts 9–10goals 1–2
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFast – Strome – Panarin9:49
xG 1.27–0.27 (82%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich8:06
xG 0.56–0.03 (96%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Lemieux – Chytil – Kakko5:29
xG 0.01–0.16 (5%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Trouba10:24
xG 0.58–0.43 (58%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Staal – DeAngelo9:50
xG 0.39–0.30 (56%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Fox – Lindgren9:25
xG 0.36–0.29 (56%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).