Fri, Dec 27, 2019·Capital One Arena, Washington
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Washington Capitals 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 09 | 18 | 011 | 00 | 128 |
| WSH | 08 | 013 | 111 | 14 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:17CBJJakob LiljaAssists: Riley Nash, Ryan MacInnis · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P3 6:13WSHCarl HagelinAssists: Richard Panik, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- OT 3:13WSHT.J. OshiePPGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
- P2 1:41WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:26CBJDean Kukan: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:35CBJAlexandre Texier: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:52WSHJonas Siegenthaler: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:52WSHJonas Siegenthaler: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:52CBJNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:52CBJNick Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:21CBJEric Robinson: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:10WSHNicklas Backstrom: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:04CBJNick Foligno: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:18CBJNathan Gerbe: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Jenner – Stenlund13:32
xG 0.75–0.35 (68%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Gerbe – Foligno – Wennberg10:44
xG 0.53–0.35 (60%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Dubois – Texier – Robinson7:44
xG 0.48–0.41 (54%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Nash – MacInnis – Lilja6:19
xG 0.17–0.15 (53%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Gavrikov17:49
xG 0.93–0.45 (67%)attempts 15–19goals 1–0
- Jones – Werenski18:56
xG 0.93–0.55 (63%)attempts 17–22goals 0–0
- Carlsson – Kukan8:16
xG 0.12–0.41 (23%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Eller – Vrana2:31
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Dowd – Leipsic – Hathaway6:42
xG 0.16–0.05 (75%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Panik – Kuznetsov2:30
xG 0.31–0.21 (59%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana8:18
xG 0.13–0.19 (41%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Djoos6:00
xG 0.39–0.30 (56%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Orlov – Gudas2:52
xG 0.02–0.04 (31%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Carlson – Orlov3:00
xG 0.16–0.20 (44%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).