Fri, Dec 27, 2019·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 37 | 29 | 09 | 525 |
| NSH | 110 | 013 | 19 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:17PITDominik SimonAssists: Juuso Riikola, Chad Ruhwedel · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 4:30NSHCraig SmithAssists: Mattias Ekholm · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 14:16PITAlex GalchenyukAssists: Marcus Pettersson, John Marino · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–1
- P1 14:50PITTeddy BluegerGWGAssists: Zachary Aston-Reese, Brandon Tanev · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–1
- P2 4:38PITBryan RustAssists: Jake Guentzel, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–1
- P2 18:04PITJuuso RiikolaAssists: Dominik Kahun, Jared McCann · Wrist, 0.24 xG5–1
- P3 9:18NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Roman Josi, Rocco Grimaldi · Deflected, 0.07 xG5–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 12:15NSHNick Bonino: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:22PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:59NSHMattias Ekholm: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:59PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:59PITBryan Rust: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:59NSHMatt Irwin: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:59NSHMattias Ekholm: Misconduct10 min
- P3 8:59NSHMattias Ekholm: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:59PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:23PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestGalchenyuk – McCann – Kahun10:02
xG 0.64–0.34 (66%)attempts 7–9goals 1–2
- Blueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese10:32
xG 0.59–0.33 (64%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Blandisi – Lafferty – Simon7:45
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Malkin – Rust – Guentzel13:17
xG 0.68–0.56 (55%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Riikola13:17
xG 0.89–0.22 (80%)attempts 14–10goals 3–0
- Pettersson – Marino14:30
xG 0.64–0.34 (66%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Letang – Pettersson2:37
xG 0.09–0.16 (36%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Bonino – Watson – Grimaldi3:55
xG 0.17–0.23 (42%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Johansen – Arvidsson8:57
xG 0.22–0.32 (41%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Bonino – Watson – Sissons3:01
xG 0.06–0.21 (22%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Turris – Smith – Grimaldi10:08
xG 0.36–0.56 (39%)attempts 13–6goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis16:14
xG 0.54–0.43 (56%)attempts 16–10goals 1–1
- Josi – Fabbro2:35
xG 0.27–0.18 (59%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Irwin3:29
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).