Fri, Dec 27, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Calgary Flames 5, Edmonton Oilers 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 211 | 214 | 16 | 531 |
| EDM | 110 | 010 | 09 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:11CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 11:39CGYMatthew TkachukGWGAssists: Andrew Mangiapane · Snap, 0.19 xG2–0
- P1 14:26EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Darnell Nurse · Tip-in, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 1:08CGYSean MonahanAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, TJ Brodie · Snap, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 16:54CGYElias LindholmAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, TJ Brodie · Snap, 0.05 xG4–1
- P3 0:57CGYMikael BacklundSHAssists: Michael Frolik, Mark Giordano · Snap, 0.13 xG5–1
Penalties (3)
- P2 7:17EDMAlex Chiasson: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:43CGYOliver Kylington: Interference2 min
- P2 19:57CGYElias Lindholm: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLindholm – Mangiapane – Tkachuk13:19
xG 0.56–0.39 (59%)attempts 12–10goals 3–0
- Lucic – Ryan – Dube10:35
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Backlund – Gaudreau – Monahan12:22
xG 0.26–0.32 (45%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Frolik – Rieder – Bennett11:28
xG 0.21–0.84 (20%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie16:45
xG 0.65–0.45 (59%)attempts 14–12goals 3–0
- Hamonic – Hanifin17:20
xG 0.42–0.68 (38%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
- Andersson – Kylington17:27
xG 0.40–1.02 (28%)attempts 12–21goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKassian – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl5:18
xG 0.31–0.06 (83%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Khaira – Russell10:14
xG 0.45–0.24 (65%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Kassian – Draisaitl – McDavid10:06
xG 0.54–0.45 (54%)attempts 11–8goals 0–2
- Chiasson – Nygard – Haas9:34
xG 0.25–0.29 (46%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom16:25
xG 0.82–0.44 (65%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Russell – Jones14:50
xG 0.39–0.29 (57%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Nurse – Bear16:57
xG 0.81–0.76 (52%)attempts 17–16goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).