Fri, Dec 27, 2019·Honda Center, Anaheim
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 08 | 19 | 212 | 329 |
| ANA | 04 | 39 | 15 | 418 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:55VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: William Karlsson, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 9:00ANAAdam HenriquePPAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Cam Fowler · Slap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 10:23ANACam FowlerPPAssists: Sam Steel, Devin Shore · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 10:37ANAMaxime ComtoisAssists: Jacob Larsson, Isac Lundeström · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 9:46ANADevin ShoreGWGAssists: Carter Rowney · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–4
- P3 18:08VGKNate SchmidtAssists: Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 19:54VGKNate SchmidtAssists: Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P2 7:01VGKNate Schmidt: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:16VGKTomas Nosek: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 11:32VGKTomas Nosek: Elbowing2 min
- P2 11:32ANASam Steel: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:13VGKMark Stone: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:13ANARyan Getzlaf: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:17ANAKorbinian Holzer: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:23ANAJosh Manson: Kneeing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Steel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Stone – Stephenson13:59
xG 0.65–0.32 (67%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:13
xG 0.74–0.50 (60%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Nosek7:44
xG 0.47–0.37 (56%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Stastny – Tuch – Glass8:59
xG 0.07–0.22 (24%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Holden11:58
xG 0.85–0.23 (79%)attempts 13–4goals 1–1
- Theodore – Hague12:12
xG 0.69–0.50 (58%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- McNabb – Schmidt14:32
xG 0.60–0.62 (49%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Henrique – Carrick11:11
xG 0.40–0.28 (59%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Silfverberg – Comtois – Lundeström7:33
xG 0.15–0.04 (78%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Kase – Steel – Jones13:35
xG 0.35–0.62 (36%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Deslauriers – Shore – Rowney8:16
xG 0.31–1.02 (23%)attempts 5–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolzer – Larsson12:16
xG 0.42–0.35 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Fowler – Gudbranson15:41
xG 0.42–0.69 (38%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Manson – Lindholm15:53
xG 0.43–1.16 (27%)attempts 7–23goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).