Sat, Dec 28, 2019·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
New York Rangers 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 210 | 219 | 08 | 11 | 538 |
| TOR | 114 | 119 | 213 | 02 | 448 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:41NYRBrett HowdenAssists: Ryan Strome, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 4:21TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: John Tavares, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 7:59NYRRyan StromeAssists: Artemi Panarin · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 4:37NYRRyan StromeAssists: Artemi Panarin, Jesper Fast · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
- P2 7:48TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 17:05NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 6:22TORPierre EngvallAssists: Tyson Barrie, Kasperi Kapanen · Tip-in, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 19:07TORAuston MatthewsAssists: William Nylander, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–4
- OT 0:52NYRTony DeAngeloGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:23NYRJacob Trouba: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:28TORTyson Barrie: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P2 5:15NYRKaapo Kakko: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:57TORPierre Engvall: Holding2 min
- P2 19:53NYRRyan Strome: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:53TORMartin Marincin: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:53TORMartin Marincin: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:53NYRRyan Strome: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFast – Strome – Panarin12:43
xG 0.88–0.27 (77%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
- Haley – McKegg – Fogarty2:13
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- McKegg – Howden – Chytil2:47
xG 0.01–0.06 (19%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Howden – Chytil – Kakko7:16
xG 0.11–0.24 (32%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren13:56
xG 0.54–0.18 (75%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Staal – DeAngelo14:18
xG 0.79–0.82 (49%)attempts 13–18goals 1–1
- Skjei – Trouba20:25
xG 0.55–1.22 (31%)attempts 12–33goals 2–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Marner – Matthews15:03
xG 0.67–0.43 (61%)attempts 22–14goals 1–1
- Spezza – Kapanen – Engvall7:38
xG 0.47–0.32 (60%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Gauthier – Timashov – Brooks2:56
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander15:26
xG 0.82–0.74 (52%)attempts 24–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Dermott4:07
xG 0.38–0.04 (91%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Barrie – Rielly17:49
xG 0.85–0.57 (60%)attempts 26–17goals 2–1
- Marincin – Holl12:13
xG 0.60–0.64 (48%)attempts 22–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).