Sat, Dec 28, 2019·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Colorado Avalanche 2, Dallas Stars 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 18 | 119 | 015 | 01 | 0 | 243 |
| DAL | 112 | 011 | 110 | 07 | 2 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:08DALTyler SeguinAssists: Alexander Radulov, John Klingberg · Snap, 0.43 xG0–1
- P1 18:58COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Tyson Jost, Matt Nieto · Snap, 0.45 xG1–1
- P2 7:19COLIan ColeAssists: Matt Nieto, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 1:25DALDenis GurianovPPAssists: John Klingberg, Roope Hintz · Deflected, 0.03 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DAL Joe Pavelski scored
- 2. COL Nathan MacKinnon stopped
- 3. DAL Tyler Seguin stopped
- 4. COL Mikko Rantanen stopped
- 5. DAL Alexander Radulov scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:59DALAlexander Radulov: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:46COLAndre Burakovsky: Holding2 min
- P2 13:57DALCorey Perry: Interference2 min
- P2 14:25DALBlake Comeau: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:42COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:52COLCale Makar: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 4:24COLNikita Zadorov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- OT 2:47COLNathan MacKinnon: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Landeskog won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:27
xG 0.64–0.39 (62%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Kadri – Donskoi – Burakovsky9:42
xG 0.31–0.22 (59%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Nieto – Compher – Jost6:33
xG 0.59–0.56 (51%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Calvert – Nichushkin – Bellemare7:44
xG 0.20–0.48 (30%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Makar14:35
xG 1.21–0.39 (76%)attempts 21–9goals 1–0
- Girard – Makar4:17
xG 0.76–0.03 (96%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Johnson – Cole14:02
xG 0.20–0.27 (42%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Benn – Seguin9:11
xG 0.91–0.06 (94%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa10:02
xG 0.58–0.51 (53%)attempts 4–16goals 0–0
- Perry – Dickinson – Gurianov8:01
xG 0.12–0.31 (27%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Janmark – Hintz6:23
xG 0.28–0.70 (29%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Oleksiak14:30
xG 0.91–0.79 (54%)attempts 22–16goals 1–1
- Klingberg – Lindell2:12
xG 0.01–0.16 (6%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Sekera – Polak9:16
xG 0.48–0.68 (42%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).