Sat, Dec 28, 2019·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Philadelphia Flyers 1, San Jose Sharks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 05 | 08 | 114 | 127 |
| SJS | 17 | 211 | 311 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:15SJSMario FerraroAssists: Barclay Goodrow · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 2:39SJSJoel KellmanGWGAssists: Radim Simek, Mario Ferraro · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 9:21SJSTimo MeierAssists: Brent Burns, Brenden Dillon · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–3
- P3 0:51PHIIvan ProvorovPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Travis Konecny · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 1:36SJSTimo MeierAssists: Evander Kane, Barclay Goodrow · Snap, 0.18 xG1–4
- P3 12:52SJSTimo MeierAssists: Evander Kane, Barclay Goodrow · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–5
- P3 17:20SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Marcus Sorensen, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:51SJSTimo Meier: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 6:00PHIMatt Niskanen: Holding2 min
- P2 17:50SJSPatrick Marleau: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:54SJSBarclay Goodrow: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Couturier4:45
xG 0.37–0.12 (76%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Vorobyev – Farabee7:05
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Hayes – Farabee4:32
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Hayes – Konecny5:15
xG 0.27–0.20 (57%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Myers14:20
xG 0.66–0.11 (86%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Provorov15:57
xG 1.01–0.53 (65%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Braun – Sanheim15:05
xG 0.37–0.83 (31%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Hertl – Labanc13:05
xG 0.95–0.23 (80%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Sorensen10:06
xG 0.51–0.49 (51%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Sorensen – Noesen – Kellman3:28
xG 0.02–0.03 (44%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Kane – Goodrow – Meier11:25
xG 0.72–0.97 (43%)attempts 11–12goals 3–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Karlsson16:04
xG 1.02–0.35 (74%)attempts 20–12goals 0–0
- Burns – Dillon16:26
xG 1.02–0.93 (52%)attempts 12–15goals 3–0
- Ferraro – Simek16:27
xG 0.35–0.55 (39%)attempts 6–12goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).