Sun, Dec 29, 2019·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Winnipeg Jets 1, St. Louis Blues 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 07 | 111 | 08 | 126 |
| STL | 17 | 17 | 214 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:18STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: David Perron, Alex Pietrangelo · Snap, 0.30 xG0–1
- P2 5:40WPGNicholas ShoreAssists: Logan Shaw, Jansen Harkins · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 15:09STLJaden SchwartzGWGAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Brayden Schenn · Snap, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 7:06STLRobert ThomasPPAssists: Vince Dunn, Jordan Kyrou · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–3
- P3 19:30STLJaden SchwartzUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 17:48STLRyan O'Reilly: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:18STLAlex Pietrangelo: Interference2 min
- P2 19:36WPGPatrik Laine: Interference2 min
- P3 5:37WPGLuca Sbisa: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 17:10STLJordan Binnington: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Shaw – Shore – Harkins6:21
xG 0.13–0.23 (35%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Bourque – Lowry – Appleton10:13
xG 0.14–0.66 (17%)attempts 3–12goals 0–1
- Scheifele – Connor – Laine15:31
xG 0.55–1.29 (30%)attempts 16–17goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Ehlers – Roslovic11:41
xG 0.16–1.04 (14%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sbisa – Pionk16:48
xG 0.34–0.73 (32%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Bitetto – Beaulieu10:37
xG 0.21–0.83 (20%)attempts 4–10goals 1–1
- Poolman – Morrissey19:07
xG 0.59–1.67 (26%)attempts 16–18goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – O'Reilly – Sundqvist15:02
xG 1.32–0.32 (80%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- MacEachern – de la Rose – Barbashev2:36
xG 0.78–0.06 (93%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Steen – Bozak – Thomas9:27
xG 0.46–0.14 (77%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Schenn – Schwartz – Kyrou2:17
xG 0.21–0.14 (60%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Faulk18:39
xG 2.24–0.37 (86%)attempts 26–9goals 2–0
- Bortuzzo – Dunn9:56
xG 0.56–0.37 (60%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Bouwmeester – Parayko15:56
xG 0.62–0.53 (54%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).