Sun, Dec 29, 2019·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New Jersey Devils 4, Ottawa Senators 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 114 | 29 | 010 | 11 | 434 |
| OTT | 06 | 210 | 17 | 00 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:58NJDNico HischierPPAssists: Sami Vatanen, Damon Severson · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 8:39OTTNick PaulAssists: Anthony Duclair, Cody Goloubef · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 13:28OTTArtem AnisimovAssists: Andreas Englund, Colin White · Tip-in, 0.23 xG1–2
- P2 15:12NJDNikita GusevPPAssists: Sami Vatanen, Jack Hughes · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 18:00NJDMiles WoodAssists: Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 15:02OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 0:54NJDJack HughesGWGAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Sami Vatanen · Wrist, 0.29 xG4–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 6:13OTTAndreas Englund: Interference2 min
- P1 6:13OTTAndreas Englund: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 6:13NJDJohn Hayden: Instigator2 min
- P1 6:13NJDJohn Hayden: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:13NJDJohn Hayden: Misconduct10 min
- P1 7:09OTTVladislav Namestnikov: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:25NJDMirco Mueller: Interference2 min
- P1 14:35OTTScott Sabourin: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:37NJDJack Hughes: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 5:08NJDConnor Carrick: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:57OTTColin White: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 14:14OTTVladislav Namestnikov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Anisimov won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Bratt – Hischier10:15
xG 0.57–0.19 (75%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Zajac – Coleman – Gusev9:48
xG 0.34–0.13 (72%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Hayden – Zacha – Boqvist4:59
xG 0.02–0.12 (17%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Wood – Hughes10:58
xG 0.58–0.90 (39%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestVatanen – Severson15:19
xG 0.65–0.45 (59%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
- Greene – Vatanen2:06
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Subban – Mueller2:27
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTierney – Duclair – Paul5:53
xG 0.33–0.07 (82%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Sabourin – Paul – Beaudin2:48
xG 0.13–0.02 (86%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Ennis – White10:11
xG 0.52–0.58 (47%)attempts 9–17goals 1–1
- Pageau – Brown – Tkachuk13:01
xG 0.25–0.44 (37%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoloubef – Chabot16:16
xG 0.96–0.15 (87%)attempts 19–12goals 2–0
- Englund – Jaros5:28
xG 0.42–0.21 (67%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Chabot – Brannstrom3:06
xG 0.32–0.14 (69%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).