Sun, Dec 29, 2019·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
New York Islanders 3, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 010 | 010 | 38 | 328 |
| MIN | 112 | 05 | 09 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:43MINRyan DonatoAssists: Ryan Suter, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–1
- P3 4:24NYIRyan PulockAssists: Mathew Barzal, Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 6:01NYIMatt MartinGWGAssists: Leo Komarov, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 17:29NYITom KuhnhacklAssists: Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:34MINRyan Hartman: Holding2 min
- P1 9:34NYIScott Mayfield: Holding2 min
- P1 16:32NYIAnders Lee: Interference2 min
- P1 18:54MINJordan Greenway: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:12MINMats Zuccarello: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:37NYIMathew Barzal: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 10:35NYIScott Mayfield: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Kuhnhackl – Barzal8:35
xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Komarov – Martin – Cizikas7:32
xG 0.24–0.16 (60%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Brassard – Nelson – Beauvillier10:21
xG 0.10–0.10 (50%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Bailey – Eberle – Johnston6:42
xG 0.11–0.25 (31%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock13:47
xG 0.47–0.16 (74%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Toews11:24
xG 0.20–0.18 (52%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy12:16
xG 0.34–0.94 (27%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFiala – Donato – Eriksson Ek9:24
xG 0.99–0.21 (83%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Foligno – Rask – Hartman11:13
xG 0.46–0.32 (59%)attempts 18–5goals 0–1
- Greenway – Kunin – Sturm8:19
xG 0.06–0.06 (52%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Staal – Parise – Zuccarello11:30
xG 0.10–0.17 (36%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon15:24
xG 0.77–0.39 (67%)attempts 18–13goals 1–1
- Brodin – Soucy13:16
xG 0.46–0.24 (66%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Hunt – Dumba15:26
xG 0.43–0.46 (48%)attempts 16–14goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).