Sun, Dec 29, 2019·TD Garden, Boston
Buffalo Sabres 2, Boston Bruins 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 07 | 112 | 17 | 226 |
| BOS | 12 | 011 | 29 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:39BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 6:37BUFRasmus RistolainenAssists: Sam Reinhart, Marcus Johansson · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 2:37BOSJake DeBruskPPAssists: Steven Kampfer, David Pastrnak · Deflected, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 2:55BOSJake DeBruskPPGWGAssists: David Krejci, Steven Kampfer · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 5:08BUFCurtis LazarAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:50BOSJake DeBrusk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 16:35BOSChris Wagner: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:15BUFHenri Jokiharju: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:02BUFJimmy Vesey: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 14:11BUFEvan Rodrigues: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:23BUFJohan Larsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 1:23BUFJohan Larsson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:51BOSBrett Ritchie: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:43BUFSam Reinhart: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:43BUFJack Eichel: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Larsson – Reinhart6:55
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Vesey – Sheary – Asplund5:34
xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Lazar – Rodrigues6:09
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Okposo – Olofsson – Eichel10:07
xG 0.22–0.31 (41%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – McCabe2:25
xG 0.25–0.02 (92%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Miller – Dahlin7:15
xG 0.21–0.04 (84%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen6:58
xG 0.34–0.20 (64%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak8:20
xG 0.46–0.13 (77%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Coyle – Ritchie – Bjork9:04
xG 0.05–0.09 (36%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Krejci – Heinen – DeBrusk4:44
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Wagner – Nordstrom – Kuraly8:53
xG 0.13–0.30 (30%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Grzelcyk – Clifton4:45
xG 0.11–0.06 (65%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Kampfer – Grzelcyk6:07
xG 0.14–0.12 (55%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Chara – Carlo13:45
xG 0.30–0.30 (50%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).